It’s Decision Time!
It’s Decision Time!
Thursday, 06 May 2010
The UK General Election has reached its climax, and it’s on a knife edge. It’s decision time for the nation, and for me. I want to make a high quality decision. How is a decision analyst to decide where to put his cross?
Framing: The newspapers and TV want me to think that I am electing a Prime Minister. Actually, my vote will be cast for a local MP to represent the place where I live (Streatham), and only indirectly will the person elected determine the makeup of the next government of the UK. This simplifies things a lot.
Alternatives: I am not about to waste my vote on one of the motley fringe. Of the three main parties, Rahoul Bhansali (Conservative) is a lacklustre candidate. In the hustings held at my church he did not show much grasp of local or national issues. Fortunately he has no chance of being elected here, so I can put him out of my mind.
I therefore have a straight choice between Chuka Umunna (Labour) and Chris Nicholson (Liberal-Democrat). I have met them both—they are both patrons of the capital campaign for the redevelopment of St Thomas Church, where I am treasurer. Both are credible candidates, but I think Chuka carries a little more gravitas and displays more vision and passion.
Preferences: In the absence of any other influences, I prefer Chuka.
I am largely indifferent between the parties on many of their policies. In the present economic climate I think we are all screwed. Whether it is more income tax, national insurance or VAT is a matter of detail, we will all face tax rises and spending cuts, and I will have to delay my retirement because my pension fund will be worth a lot less that it was, no matter who wins.
I don’t much want the Conservatives to have a working majority. I worry that David Cameron has merely suppressed, not eliminated, the xenophobic tendency in his party. In a minority government they would have to keep quiet a while longer.
Given a free choice to pick and mix I would probably select a combination of Labour and Lib-Dem policies, although I do wish for a more fair voting system. It seems ludicrous to me that a party with a poor minority of votes can command a majority of seats and claim a “mandate” for every one of their crazy ideas.
My dilemma is that I prefer Chuka Umunna, but I really don’t want to see Gordon Brown as Prime Minister any longer than till tomorrow. He is a classic example of the Peter Principle, a man who has been promoted to his level of incompetence. He may have been a good Chancellor, although that’s looking more questionable as the depth of our doom becomes apparent. Since he became Prime Minister he has failed to be decisive on almost every occasion that called for it, except perhaps once when he “saved the world” (his words) from economic meltdown. But it was Alistair Darling who pulled the all-nighters at the Treasury to sort out the rescue package. And when Gordon called a loyal Labour voter a “bigoted woman”, he also had a go at Sue Nye, a loyal aide, for engineering the chance encounter. He is swift to take credit for what others have done, and equally quick to blame others for his own mistakes. Gordon Brown is a vainglorious bully and not a leader worthy of my support.
There are six possible outcomes worth considering, with my ranking in parentheses (1 is favourite):
- Conservative majority government (5)
- Conservative minority government (4)
- Conservative/Lib-Dem collaboration (2)
- Labour/Lib-Dem collaboration (1)
- Labour minority government (3)
- Labour majority government (6)
The key distinction for Lib-Dem collaboration is whether their proposal for voting reform is acted upon.
Reasoning: My one vote doesn’t really count, unless without me the election is tied and then my casting vote counts a lot! I should vote as if my vote were the deciding vote.
If Streatham is tied between Labour and the Lib-Dems, this will indicate a huge surge of support for the Lib-Dems across the country, and the risk of my abetting a Labour majority government will be nil.
More likely in that scenario is that Labour will be in meltdown, likely to poll fewer votes than the Lib-Dems, but gain more seats. Labour will be unlikely to play second fiddle to the Lib-Dems, and the Conservatives (if in a minority themselves) may be able to damn the torpedoes and sail on with no regard for the Lib-Dems at all. (See Anatole Kaletsy’s analysis in The Times.) I cannot change the number of seats won by the Conservatives—and I can do nothing to prevent a Tory majority government—but I can affect the balance of the opposition. If I want the Lib-Dems to have any role in government, then in the scenario where my vote counts, one more Labour MP is probably preferable to one more Lib-Dem.
Commitment to Action: My choice is now clear. It’s time to go do it...
Now, what I do for the local elections to Lambeth Council, I have no idea. This election has had no publicity whatsoever. Maybe I will take some dice to the polling station to help me decide.
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What a cliffhanger. Still is. I don't see what majority coalition can be formed (other of course than Cons/Lab which seems out of the question). Meanwhile the country needs a strong decisive gouvernment urgently. Conundrum!